If you want to make yourself feel better, you can play with the numbers on different industry crop-production spreadsheets. While Schnitkey and Erickson predict soybean growers will spend close to $100/acre for fertilizer, Russell pencils in just $18 and figures a lot of his clients won't even spend that. “Most guys in rotation don't apply fertilizer for the soybean crop in the growing year,” he says.

(The university budgets take into consideration the value of the nutrients removed, regardless of whether the farmer replaces them with fertilizer, notes Erickson.)

Conversely, you might want to pencil in Schnitkey's cash rent projection of $200/acre. For ground that can produce 190-bu. corn, others figure it's going to cost you at least $50 more/acre to get that quality of ground rented.

The best option, of course, is to know your own numbers and get them nailed down and as soon as you can. “We've got growers who locked in anhydrous at $775 early in the summer,” says Russell. “We encourage growers to lock in as many input costs as they can — with one caution: You don't want to pre-pay for a lot of product if you don't have a good financial handle on the company you're buying it from. Some of these companies had to meet huge margin calls this summer and that has weakened their financial position.”

RUSSELL IS MOST concerned about the commodity price side of the equation. “We could be in trouble if corn prices continue to follow oil,” he says. “Some oil industry analysts are predicting oil will drop below $100/barrel in 2008 and below $80 in 2009. If you take 80% of today's futures price you're looking at $4.40 corn. If that's the case, guys are negative for 2009, or breakeven at best.”

Again, it depends on whose numbers you're looking at. Illinois' Schnitkey figures a $3.80 breakeven corn cost. Russell figures it's at least 50¢ higher than that and has some clients with breakevens closer to $5. Those figures include land costs.

“I'm using a $5 corn price for 2009 when we're putting together budgets for our clients,” Russell says. “I'm hoping that we do better than that. Farmers need to be ready to take advantage of price opportunities when they can, or it could be a bad year for them in 2009. If corn futures would get back to $6.50, I think growers need to be very aggressive with sales.

“The volatility in the market has caused a lot of confusion and some guys are starting to lose their focus,” he says. “But, instead of wringing your hands, you need to keep a cool head, know what your margins are and take a profit when it presents itself. More than ever, you have to know when to pull the trigger.”