“Longer term,” Boehlje says, “if we do have a global economic slowdown, that could slow the global dietary transition from vegetable to animal proteins. But I don't think that would reverse or permanently reduce animal protein consumption.

“I don't want to conclude that we are facing a global recession or that a slowdown would be permanent. We might have a rougher patch for a time,” he says.

MOST GROWERS HAVE always been wise to keep an eye on their debt-to-equity ratios. “But an even more important principle today is discipline around land,” Swanson says. “It costs just as much to farm marginal ground as it does to farm excellent ground. Yet good soils will outperform marginal ones substantially.

“So the rents and prices of marginal land have to be heavily discounted so that lower yields don't penalize you. Yet we are in a time where everyone wants to farm every acre and pay top dollar for every acre no matter how marginal the soil. We have done this to ourselves. We have not been able to walk away from 200 acres of breakeven or money-losing acres,” he says.

“You should review every acre you farm and ask ‘is this paying the bills or taking money out of my pocket?’,” Swanson says. “If you are renting marginal ground, let it go to someone else. Why pay $200 for the chance to lose money? This discipline is so difficult because we've been motivated to farm bigger acres with more paint.”

A VIEW FROM THE CAB

Credit availability does not appear to be a threat for Jim Klever. He farms 3,800 acres in northern Illinois near Lena. “Our local Farm Credit affiliate says that credit availability will not be an issue for them, and I think we're OK as far as I can see,” he says.

In early October, Klever was more concerned with how far out he would be able to lock in grain prices, given what he's prepaid for inputs.

“My assessment is that the biggest fallout is probably going to be that some of the hedge funds will dry up, which I hope will reduce the volatility. I'm not sure that's a bad thing — getting rid of some of the volatility. During the run-up in grain prices, you couldn't contract too far into 2008, and couldn't get anything done in 2009 last spring,” he says.

“My concern is that I'll need 190-bu. corn just to break even, with anhydrous here at $1,250-1,300/ton and potash at $1,000. If corn stays at $5 and rents wanting to climb, how's that going to work? I think our credit supply will be OK,” he says.