This past week I had the opportunity to teach at the Graduate School of Banking at LSU in Baton Rouge. This marks my 14th year. Nearly 600 bankers from 22 states and Mexico were in attendance.

Deflation

I had the opportunity to sit in on Dr. Ed Siefreid’s course on interpreting economic changes. If you get the opportunity to hear him, don’t miss it. He predicted that the Dow would be 10,000 by the year 2000 in 1989.

Siefried has the same fears of deflation that have been discussed in this column recently. Many of the early economic indicators are pointing toward this, such as declines in the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Composite Coincident Index. If they continue, then this is a sign of trouble on the horizon. We will track them in this column over the next several months.

It was the opinion of many of the instructors that Greenspan would lower rates late this month. Some Fed watchers indicated it could be as much as 75 basis points by the end of the year. Only time will tell!

Observation

I was surprised by the high number of banker farmers/ranchers in the group. I am observing this trend occurring all over the country.

Big East/ACC

Only the lawyers are getting rich in this whole takeover mess. Big time college sports are being ruined by television, big money, and power hungry administrators.

Travel Plans

In the next few weeks I’ll be heading to Illinois and New York, and hopefully getting my hay baled in between. It’s been so wet here it’s hard to get into the fields.

My e-mail address is:sullylab@vt.edu

Editors' note: Dave Kohl, The Corn and Soybean Digest Trends Editor, is an ag economist at Virginia Tech. He recently completed a sabbatical working with the Royal Bank of Canada. He is now back at Virginia Tech with his academic appointment, which is teaching, extension, and applied research.

To see Dave Kohl's previous road warrior adventures type Dave Kohl in the Search blank at the top of the page.

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