Grain Market Viewpoint

3 Keys to bullish soybean prices

Soybean bulls continue to cheer more US sales and lack of significant Chinese cancelations. The NOPA soybean crush numbers were the highest for Feb we have seen in several years at 141.612 million bushels vs. 156.943 million bushels in January and well above the 136.322 million logged in Feb of last year. The old-crop market continues to feel extremely volatile and prices swings of $1.00 to $1.50 within days ahead can not be ruled out of the realm of possibilities.  The Brazilian soybean crop continues to move out of the field at a fairly brisk pace, with several inside sources thinking 64-69% of the entire crop will be harvested by this weekend. The rumors about Chinese "cancelations" of Brazilian beans continue to run wild through the trade.  There are also more rumors of China reselling both US and South American beans back to US crusher in the the Gulf and some along the US East Coast. The latest word out of China is that meal prices in many locations are down double digits again from last week.  Trying to differentiate fact from fiction at this stage of the game, in my opinion, makes holding old-crop bushels a dangerous sport.  From a business perspective, I simply don't see the risk to reward in making this play.  Being 100% "SOLD OUT" in old-crop continues to feel like the best of practice....even though we may still be leaving a little money on the table.  As for new-crop, I am going to stick with our game plan of having just 50% sold/hedged before the crop is out of the bag. There are million reasons to believe and argue prices will be lower during the Sept-Nov timeframe, but one MAJOR reason, "US WEATHER," has taught me to be respectful of the "unknowns"...so I will remain conservative and stick with our mapped out plan.                                                                        CLICK HERE for my daily report.....

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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