Grain Market Viewpoint

Are you thinking about 2014 fertilizer?

Fertilizer costs continue to backpedal. In case you haven't been tracking, nitrogen prices are back at levels we haven't seen in 3-4 years. Urea, potash, anhydrous UAN, DAP, MAP all aggressively lower. Phosphorus is down but not down as significantly.

The question most producers are asking is how much lower will fertilizer prices go? In my opinion, there is still some room to the downside, but upside risk seems much more dangerous than downside potential. With this in mind, I believe we are quickly approaching an area where we need to be thinking about locking in our 2014 needs, especially in the case of nitrogens and phosphates. In fact, you may want to start making some calls and putting together bids ASAP.

With 2014 crop prices bringing along many unknowns, I hate like hell to let these good input prices slip away. Harvest pressure may prompt a further push to the downside, but lets not get overly greedy trying to pick the exact bottom. Be smart, if you haven't been tracking and or monitoring next year's fertilizer prices, then do so immediately. I think we are going to get a 30-45 day window were we need to be pulling the trigger.

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Discuss this Blog Entry 2

on May 12, 2014

We could actually make it to the point of learning things that would also be enough for us to know. - Ellerslie Training

on May 12, 2014

We could actually make it to the point of learning things that would also be enough for us to know. - Ellerslie Training

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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