Table of Contents:
- Bullish USDA Supply and Demand Report
- <strong>Expected Crop Yields Adjusted</strong>
- Projected 2010-2011 corn carryover projected to be less than 1 billion bushels for the first time in recent history
- Soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are expected to be 185 million bushels
- U.S. corn production for 2010 to is decreased 12.54 billion bushels
The monthly USDA Supply and Demand Report released on Nov. 9 was fairly bullish for corn and soybean market prices in the coming months. USDA is now estimating 2010-2011 U.S. corn carryover stocks at 827 million bushels, which compares to 900 million bushels in October, and represents a decrease of 37% from the Aug. 1 carryover estimate of 1.312 billion bushels. The projected 2010-2011 corn carryover would be less than 1 billion bushels for the first time in recent history, and would be the lowest since 1995-1996.
The projected 2010-2011 carryover represents only about 6.2% of the estimated total usage for the year, which is quite low. This percentage was only exceeded by 1995-1996 when the percentage of projected carryover to total usage dropped to 5%. The very low projected corn carryover stocks for 2010-2011 were somewhat mitigated, as USDA lowered expected corn usage for feed by 100 million bushels and exports by 50 million bushels in the November estimate, compared to a month earlier. This helped offset the anticipated lower 2010 U.S. corn production, as well as increased corn usage for ethanol production in the coming year.
Based on the November USDA report, soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are expected to be 185 million bushels, which is down 30% from the October estimate of 265 million bushels. Global demand for soybeans and other oilseeds is quite strong. USDA now estimates the total U.S. soybean exports for the current year at a record 1.57 billion bushels, which is an increase of 50 million bushels from last month. Most of the increase is due to added soybean sales to China, which accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. soybean exports. The combination of increased soybean exports and a slight decline in estimated 2010 production, lead to the sharp decrease in the projected soybean carryover bushels. The soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are now estimated at 20 days of usage, which is quite low, and could lead to some localized shortages of soybeans in the coming year.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for 2010-2011 in a range of $4.80-5.60/bu., or an average of $5.20/bu., which is an increase of 20¢/bu. from the October estimated average price of $5. The current USDA corn price estimate is significantly higher than the September average corn price estimate of $4.40/bu. or the August projection of $3.80. USDA is projecting the U.S. average soybean price for 2010-2011 in a range of $10.70-12.20/bu., resulting in an average soybean price of $11.45/bu. – an increase of 70¢/bu. compared to the $10.75 estimated price in October, and an estimated $9.90 in September.