Bullish USDA Supply and Demand Report

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Table of Contents:

  • Projected 2010-2011 corn carryover projected to be less than 1 billion bushels for the first time in recent history
  • Soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are expected to be 185 million bushels
  • U.S. corn production for 2010 to is decreased 12.54 billion bushels

The USDA report released on Nov. 9 decreased the expected U.S. corn production for 2010 to 12.54 billion bushels.  This compares to USDA 2010 corn production estimates of 12.66 billion bushels in October, 13.16 billion bushels in September and 13.36 billion bushels in August. Total U.S. corn production was 13.1 billion bushels in 2009 and 12.1 billion bushels in 2008. USDA is estimating that the 2010 average corn yield in the U.S. will be 154.3 bu./acre, down slightly from the September yield estimate of 155.8 bu., and well below the record U.S. average corn yield of 164.7 bu. in 2009. The recent USDA report estimated total soybean production in 2010 at 3.37 billion bushels, which is a slight decrease from the 3.41 billion bushel estimate in October. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2010 is now estimated at 43.9 bu./acre – just shy of the record U.S. soybean yield of 44.0 bu. in 2009. 

Based on the Nov. 9 report, USDA is estimating the 2010 corn yield in Minnesota at 175 bu./acre, which is the highest among major corn producing states in the U.S. and is just above the 2009 record corn yield of 174 bu. (also set in 2005). USDA lowered the expected 2010 average corn yield in Iowa to 167 bu., compared to the September estimate of 179 bu., leaving the expected 2010 yield well below the state record corn yield of 182 bu. in 2008. Illinois is now projected to have a 2010 average corn yield of 159 bu./acre – a reduction of 17 bu. from the 174 bu. estimated in September. Corn yields for 2010 for Indiana are now estimated at 160 bu., a decline of 10 bu. from the September estimate, while 2010 Nebraska corn yields are estimated at 166 bu., also down 13 bu. compared to the September estimate.

The Nov. 9 USDA report estimated the 2010 Minnesota soybean yield at 44 bu./acre –a decrease of 1 bu. from the October report and just below the state record soybean yield of 45 bu. set in 2005. The projected 2010 soybean yield is 4 bu. higher than the 2009 state average soybean yield of 40 bu. The projected 2010 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at a record 52 bu./acre, and compares to a final average yield of 51 bu. in 2009. Other projected state soybean yields for 2010 are Illinois at 52 bu., Indiana at 50 bu. and Nebraska at 53 bu. 

Editor’s note: Kent Thiesse is a former University of Minnesota Extension educator and now is Vice President of MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. You can contact him at 507-726-2137 or via e-mail at kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com.

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