Grain Market Viewpoint

Can soybeans transition to a bullish story?

The soybean "technicians" are looking back at prices noticing they are at the same levels as they were on July 11.  Many are also noting that a "key bullish reversal" could be building.  As I have mentioned over the past several reports, we are definitely in the midst of a major weather market, but we are also transitioning from a bullish old-crop story to a potentially extremely bearish new-crop story.  That has provided some volitility in the markets where we have seen extreme noves each way as it tries to establish its true direction.

The USDA left the soybean crop conditions unchanged in Monday's report despite continued talk of dry conditions in many of the key growing areas.  Even with the dry conditions, the current soybean crop rating is one of the best ever in this area and should relate to a record crop with the estimated 85 million acres that went in the ground with beans.  

Will we see an all time record production crop of soybeans?  Most definitely!! Understand, this is not the best-looking soybean crop I have ever seen, especially with some of the issues in key soybean areas, but as a whole things look good, with limited fields that are poor to very poor in the ratings.

The other kicker is that with the acres planted we may not need record yields to produce the largest soybean crop ever. From a producer's perspective, I'm hoping the technicians are right and we rally this market back above the $11.10 area vs. NOV14 so I can make a few more cash sales.

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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