Grain Market Viewpoint

Corn bulls demand story: Fundamentals versus logic

Corn bears continue to give little credit to the U.S. "demand" story. Talk is, just as soon as the headlines cool down in the Black Sea region and once South America begins to switch gears from primarily exporting soybeans to exporting more corn, the U.S. demand story will quickly fade and the recent bull run will end. This certainly sounds logical, but ask yourself again if logic has been the theme of the market as of late? In fact these markets have been anything but logical.

I was always told by my coaches, the definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results (are the bears listening?). From my perspective it's NOT traditional fundamental market logic that is dictating corn price direction but rather the rotation of money from various other forms of investments that have fallen out of favor. If you can tell me when this phase or cycle of rotation is going to end and when we are going to shift back towards a more traditional type of market flow, then yes, fundamental logic may once again prevail. Until then, ALL bets are off on the short side of this equation and I continue to wait for higher prices to sell more bushels!

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on Sep 9, 2014

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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