Grain Market Viewpoint

Corn Bulls point to less wheat feeding! Bears are circling the wagons.

The "technicians" have turned more bearish and the "fundamentalist," who never really were on board with the recent rally, are saying I told you so... In essence they have managed to shoot holes in any type of talk regarding production fears; any type of geopolitical fear associated with the Black Sea region and are in the process of making a very strong bearish argument against growth in demand. Whatever the case or argument you want to make,there is no disputing the bears are certainly circling the wagons...
 
The old-crop JUL14 contract has now officially traded through the 100-Day Moving Average and closed yesterday right at the 200-Day Moving Average...so now what? The biggest question and debate right now about demand seems to be in regard to the USDA's recent rise in exports to 1.9 billion bushels. From what I can gather the bears might be willing to concede and go along with my estimate of 1.8 billion in exports but are clearly balking at the 1.9 billion estimates by the USDA. To start with there is more talk now circulating that China is in the process of canceling their remaining US old-crop corn purchase. The bears are also sighting the fact Ukraine continues to export more corn than the trade had anticipated and the South America supplies should eventually start to come online and become more readily available in the global market. Hence exports might be currently overstated by a fairly sizable amount. The 5.3 billion bushels of estimated corn for feed usage also remains highly debatable. The bears are arguing this number is too high considering it hasn't been adjusted in months and therefore hasn't fairly taken into account the negative effects and impact of the PED virus on the US hog population. The bears also argue the feed usage number is too high based on the current size of the US cattle herd. The bulls are trying to offset this argument by pointing to less wheat feeding caused by higher wheat prices and less availability of HRW wheat supplies. How much Corn did you sell on the last rally? Try out The Van Trump Report Free and see what we recommended!
 

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on Jul 1, 2014

Whenever we try to settle things which we could also be wanting to know about there would always be times when we want to get to know things better. - Bernadine Fried

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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