Soybean "technicians" continue to look for the market to tip its hand in one direction or the other as for a clue if we will make another run to fresh NEW highs or has the party finally ended???
The old-crop JUL14 contract high of $15.36^6 posted last Thursday might be out of the question, especially if you take into account the upcoming Index roll. However there is some talk if the new-crop, NOV14 contract, can close back above the $12.54-$12.55 range then perhaps the magic $13.00 level may have a chance to be obtained.
One of the largest obstacles, and one the fundamental bears are constantly pointing out, is the fact the USDA currently has the US soybean crop estimated at a record large 81.5 million acres and that might be 750,000 to 1.5 million acres too conservative... Moral of the story, a record large crop out of South America followed by a record large crop out of the US makes "beans in the teens" seem like a bit of a fairy tale.
Click and find out what portion of our estimated production is priced and what we are willing to bet on a possible US crop failure.