Grain Market Viewpoint

How long will corn prices get a lift from slow planting?

Corn traders are digesting the latest USDA report of just 19% of the crop planted vs. the 5-year average of 28%. Keep in mind however, last year at this time we were just 5% planted. The bulls are also trying to make a story out the fact just 3% of the crop is emerged vs. the 5-year average of 6% at this stage of the game.

Sorry, I am just not seeing the major concerns in regard to the corn planting pace...at least not as of yet. I will admit, my previous thoughts of the US being 40-45% planted by May 4 might have been a bit overly optimistic. This new wave of storms has certainly thrown a monkey wrench in the plans of many producers.  In fact, I am starting to hear a lot more talk about "re-plant" acres now needing to take place.  

Keep in mind the 5-year average for next week's data is right around 39% planted. I should point out however in 2011 we only had 13% of the crop in the ground by May 4 and last year just 12% of the crop was planted by that date.  It will all hinge on weather through the end of this week and into the weekend.  The planting progress has been sporadic at best and varies greatly, from farm to farm, in fairly tight proximity.  

The bottom line is we are behind the 5-year planting pace but ahead of the pace of the past two out of three years planting pace. Plus, we have seen the producers ability to put seed in the ground faster then ever before.  Lets all relax and see where we are the third week of May and then we can get concerned if we are still behind the average planting pace.  

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on May 6, 2014

This is very informative! I hope everyone will understand all the bottom lines here. - Kris Krohn

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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