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January 2014 USDA report summary

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As expected, the USDA Crop Production Report released on Jan. 10 indicates that the total U.S. corn production for 2013 will increase significantly, and the 2013 soybean production will increase moderately, as compared to production levels in 2012. The final national average yields per acre for corn and soybeans in 2013 are also expected be significantly higher than the drought-reduced 2012 yields. Following are some highlights of the latest USDA Crop Report, as well as the latest Supply and Demand (WADSE) report.

Corn

According to the Jan. 10 report, the total U.S, corn production for 2013 is estimated at just over 13.92 billion bushels, an increase of nearly 38% from the 2012 total corn production of slightly above 10.78 billion bushels. The total U.S. corn production in recent years was 12.36 billion bushels in 2011, 12.5 billion bushels in 2010, and 13.1 billion bushels in 2009. The 95.4 million corn acres planted in 2013, compares to 97.1 million acres in 2012, which was the highest on record in the U.S. since 1949. The total corn acres harvested for grain in 2013 was 87.7 million acres.

According to the Jan. 10 report, the projected corn ending stocks for 2013-2014 are estimated at a level of 1.63 billion bushels, which is well above the 2012-2013 estimated ending stocks of 821 million bushels, as well as the corn ending stocks of 989 million bushels in 2011-2012. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use for 2013-2014 will be approximately 13.15 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is up significantly from 11.11 billion bushels in 2012-2013, and higher than total usage of 12.5 billion bushels in 2011-2012. The current estimated corn “stocks-to-use” ratio for 2013-14 is at about 12.4 percent, which is a big increase from the corn “stocks-to-use” ratio of near 5 percent that existed a year ago at this time.

USDA is now projecting a national average corn price of $4.40 per bushel for 2013-2014, which would be the lowest 12-month national average corn price in several years. This compares to an estimated 12-month average farm price of $6.89 per bushel for 2012-2013 and $6.22 per bushel for 2011-2012. The 12-month national average farm price will be calculated from Sept. 1, 2013 through Aug. 31, 2014, and is for the 2013 crop year, and not the 2014 production year. 

Soybeans

According to the Jan. 10 report, total U.S. soybean production for 2013 is estimated at near 3.29 billion bushels, which compares to 3.03 billion bushels in 2012, and 3.09 billion bushels in 2011. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2013 was near 75.9 million acres, down from the 2012 level of 76.2 million acres, as well as the record of 76.6 million acres in 2010. 

The USDA Report is projecting soybean ending stocks for 2013-2014 at 150 million bushels, which is up from the carryover level of 141 million bushels in 2012-2013, but is below the ending stocks of 169 million bushels in 2011-2012. Total soybean usage for 2013-2014 is estimated at 3.3 billion bushels, up slightly from 2012-13. The current soybean “stocks-to-use” ratio is now near 4.5%, which is similar to recent years. USDA is now estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean price for 2013-2014 in a range of $11.75-13.25 per bushel, or an average price of $12.50 per bushel. This compares to an estimated average farm price of $14.40 per bushel for 2012-2013 and $12.50 per bushel for 2011-2012. 

 

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