Grain Market Viewpoint

June 2013 WASDE Goes off Without a Hiccup

CORN

Old-crop ending stock moved higher from the previous 759 million estimate to 769 million. Most in the trade were looking for the number to remain unchanged or a hair lower. Exports were lowered by 50 million, imports raised 25 million, ethanol raised 50 million. New-crop ending stocks lowered to 1.949 billion from the May estimate of 2.004 billion. USDA chooses NOT to lower U.S. corn planted acres in this report, shaves new-crop yield estimate another 1.5 bu./acre.

  • Ethanol Production: USDA's previous estimate of 4.6 billion bushels raised to 4.65 billion. A jump of 50 million. New-crop ethanol production also bumped 50 million higher to 4.9 billion 
  • Corn Imports: USDA opting to bump their corn estimate higher from the previous 125 million to 150 million.
  • Corn Exports: USDA continues to chase this number lower, moving estimate from the previous 750 million down to 700 million. 
  • Planted Acreage: Left unchanged at 97.3 million to.  Trade was looking for a 1.5 million acre reduction. 
  • Yield: Lowered once again, first from 163 down to 158, now down to 156.5. Trade was looking for a 0.5-1 bu. cut. 
  • Total Production (new-crop): Previous USDA estimate of 14.140 billion bushels lowered down to 14.005 billion bushels.
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Lowered from 12.920 billion bushels down to 12.850 billion. Feed and residual lowered from 5.325 billion down to 5.200; exports left unchanged at 1.3 billion; ethanol raised from 4.85 billion to 4.90. 
  • South American Production: Brazils corn production taken from 76 million metric tons up to 77 million. Trades was looking for a bump of 2-3 million metric tons.  Argentine production left "unchanged." The trade was looking for a reduction of 1 to 1.5 million.  

SOYBEANS

Old-crop ending stocks left unchanged vs. the May estimate 125 million. Raised crush 25 million, lowered exports 20 million and raised imports 5 million. New-crop also left unchanged vs. the previous estimate of 265 million. 

  • Crush: Previous estimate of 1.635 billion raised to 1.660 billion.
  • Exports: Bumped slightly lower from 1.350 billion last month to 1.330 billion.
  • Planted Acreage: The record May acreage estimate of 77.1 million left unchanged. 
  • Yield: Record yield of 44.5 bu./acre left unchanged. 
  • Total Production: Previous estimate of 3.390 left unchanged. 
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Left unchanged from last months estimate of 3.264 billion. Chinese import estimate of 69 mmt left unchanged.  
  • South American Production: Brazil's production lowered from 83.5 mmt to 82 mmt. Argentine production was left unchanged from last month's 51-mmt estimate. Trade was looking for a 3-4 mmt drop in South American production, so a little disappointing. 

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Discuss this Blog Entry 5

on Mar 26, 2014

It was great to see the old printshop and everyone who works there again. I am excited to see a printing business still operating and growing, great job guys
http://gelbed.ezweb123.com/

on Aug 31, 2014

They breeze through the whole thing easily. Doing a good job with it is something they should be proud of. - BentleyForbes

on Sep 1, 2014

I'm glad that the wasde went well. I wonder what the leading marketing company in Atlanta says about it. I think we should read what Veritas Inc says about all of this.

on Sep 1, 2014

In fact, since we're on the topic, we should read the tweets from Veritas Inc Atlanta and see if they reference this article.

on Sep 8, 2014

Comments and opinions are usually the case for misinterpretation on these forums. It terms of ethanol production and marketing of it, you should read some of these Veritas Inc reviews for starters. You might be amazed at what goes on over there.

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Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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