Grain Market Viewpoint

June 2013 WASDE Goes off Without a Hiccup

CORN

Old-crop ending stock moved higher from the previous 759 million estimate to 769 million. Most in the trade were looking for the number to remain unchanged or a hair lower. Exports were lowered by 50 million, imports raised 25 million, ethanol raised 50 million. New-crop ending stocks lowered to 1.949 billion from the May estimate of 2.004 billion. USDA chooses NOT to lower U.S. corn planted acres in this report, shaves new-crop yield estimate another 1.5 bu./acre.

  • Ethanol Production: USDA's previous estimate of 4.6 billion bushels raised to 4.65 billion. A jump of 50 million. New-crop ethanol production also bumped 50 million higher to 4.9 billion 
  • Corn Imports: USDA opting to bump their corn estimate higher from the previous 125 million to 150 million.
  • Corn Exports: USDA continues to chase this number lower, moving estimate from the previous 750 million down to 700 million. 
  • Planted Acreage: Left unchanged at 97.3 million to.  Trade was looking for a 1.5 million acre reduction. 
  • Yield: Lowered once again, first from 163 down to 158, now down to 156.5. Trade was looking for a 0.5-1 bu. cut. 
  • Total Production (new-crop): Previous USDA estimate of 14.140 billion bushels lowered down to 14.005 billion bushels.
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Lowered from 12.920 billion bushels down to 12.850 billion. Feed and residual lowered from 5.325 billion down to 5.200; exports left unchanged at 1.3 billion; ethanol raised from 4.85 billion to 4.90. 
  • South American Production: Brazils corn production taken from 76 million metric tons up to 77 million. Trades was looking for a bump of 2-3 million metric tons.  Argentine production left "unchanged." The trade was looking for a reduction of 1 to 1.5 million.  

SOYBEANS

Old-crop ending stocks left unchanged vs. the May estimate 125 million. Raised crush 25 million, lowered exports 20 million and raised imports 5 million. New-crop also left unchanged vs. the previous estimate of 265 million. 

  • Crush: Previous estimate of 1.635 billion raised to 1.660 billion.
  • Exports: Bumped slightly lower from 1.350 billion last month to 1.330 billion.
  • Planted Acreage: The record May acreage estimate of 77.1 million left unchanged. 
  • Yield: Record yield of 44.5 bu./acre left unchanged. 
  • Total Production: Previous estimate of 3.390 left unchanged. 
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Left unchanged from last months estimate of 3.264 billion. Chinese import estimate of 69 mmt left unchanged.  
  • South American Production: Brazil's production lowered from 83.5 mmt to 82 mmt. Argentine production was left unchanged from last month's 51-mmt estimate. Trade was looking for a 3-4 mmt drop in South American production, so a little disappointing. 

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on Mar 26, 2014

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Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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