Grain Market Viewpoint

Make smart risk management moves when marketing soybeans

Soybeans continue to try and break downhill slalom records (breaking over a $1.30 in the past 8 trading sessions) on thoughts of a mammoth new-crop coming down the pipe and talk that many U.S. crushers are claiming to have enough coverage to make it through August, possibly holding out until U.S. southern new-crop bushels hit the supply pipeline.

It's somewhat crazy to think about, but farmers don't seem to be making any old-crop sales on the break and crushers don't seem real interested in no real change in the basis. From a "technical" perspective there is almost no way to argue form the bullish side of the fence.

I'm sure some analysts are using the proverbial "we are oversold" lingo, but I urge you to be cautious buying into this theory. I've seen markets stay "oversold" much longer than either you or I can afford to fund a position looking for that bullish bounce.  Be smart; trying to pick bottom's is often a fools game. Thinking you have the foresight or intuition to pick when a raging market is going to flip or turn on a dime is not what I consider "smart" risk-management. Sure there could be some bounces along the way, but the market is clearly in BEAR MODE both technically and fundamentally.

From my perspective you can take one of three stances: wildly bearish, bearish or on the sideline with a neutral stance. No where in there did I mention trying to pick a bottom and be a bull. I wish we could take that stance, but the stars just aren't lining up right now. Producers who made good sales need to remain patient and keep hedges in place while the storms pass.

Get my daily report.....

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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