Grain Market Viewpoint

May 2013 WASDE Breakdown and Perspective

 

Corn stocks moved higher. Old-crop corn from 749 million bushels in April to 759 million; new-crop corn from 2.177 billion bushels in the Feb Ag Forum down to 2.004 billion.  


  • Ethanol bumped higher to 4.6 billion vs. April estimate at 4.55; 13/14 estimated at 4.85 vs 4.675 at Feb Ag Forum 
  • Feed for corn left unchanged 4.400 billion bushels; 13/14 corn feed estimated at 5.325 billion vs. 5.40 billion in Feb Ag Forum 
  • Exports lowered 50 million bushels to 750 million vs. April estimate at 800 million; 13/14 lowered to 1.3 billion vs. 1.5 billion at Feb Ag Forum 
  • Imports unchanged at April estimates of 125 million. 13/14 at 25 million. 
  • Acreage left unchanged at 97.3 million acres in March Intentions. Looking for acreage to be reduced in June report or later. Harvested acres still 89.5 million.
  • Yield moved lower to 158 estimated at 163.6 bushels per acre at Feb Ag Forum
  • Total Production for 13/14 lowered to 14.140 from the 14.530 billion estimate. 
  • South American production: Brazil from 74 million metric tons to 76; Argentina production left unchanged at 26.5 million metric tons to 
  • Global stocks actually moved slightly higher in old crop from 125.290 in April to 125.43; New-crop 13/14 raised higher to 154.63 (This is a big number).

 

Soybean stocks unchanged at 125 million bushels. New-crop soybeans pushed higher to 265 from 250 million bushels in the Feb Ag Forum.

  • Crush left unchanged vs the 1.635 estimate in April. Exports also left unchanged at 1.350 billion. Hard to believe? Imports also left unchanged at 20 million bushels. Even though it seems like more are heading our way.  
  • Acreage estimate unchanged at 77.1 million estimated in March Intentions 
  • Total Production for 13/14 moved slightly lower to 3.390 from the 3.405 billion last estimated 
  • Chinese 12/13 demand moved lower from 61 million metric tons to 59 mmt (reduced from earlier estimates of 63 million). 13/14 Chinese demand pushed to 69 mmt.
  • South American production: Brazil from 83.5 mmt to 83.5; Argentina 51.5 mmt to 51.0.
  • Global stocks moved slightly lower in old crop 62.46 vs. 62.63 in April; new-crop 13/14 raised higher to 74.96. 

 

Wheat stocks left unchanged at 731 million bushels. New-crop wheat pushed higher from 639 million to 670  million.

  • HRW crop lowered from 1.004 billion last year to 768 million 
  • SRW crop raised from 420 million last year to 501 million. 
  • All U.S. wheat lowered from 2.269 billion last year down to 2.057
  • Exports unchanged at 1.025 billion 
  • Feed lowered to 360 million vs. 375 million last month
  • Global stocks moved lower in old-crop from 182.260 in April down to 180.16. New-crop raised higher to 186.38.

 

U.S. Ending Stocks 2012/13
 
May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
0.759
0.757
0.749
0.684 - 0.800
Soybeans
0.125
0.125
0.123
0.107 - 0.130
Wheat
0.731
0.731
0.733
0.720 - 0.747


U.S. Ending Stocks 2013/14

 
May #
Feb Ag Outlook #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
2.004
2.177
1.993
1.387 - 2.427
Soybeans
0.265
0.250
0.236
0.147 - 0.325
Wheat
0.670
0.639
0.658
0.486 - 0.800


Global Ending Stocks 2012/13

 
May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
125.43
125.290
125.646
123.500 - 132.100
Soybeans
62.46
62.630
62.300
61.111 - 63.000
Wheat
180.17
182.260
181.528
178.300 - 183.200

Global Ending Stocks 2013/14
 
May #
 
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
154.63
 
151.695
130.000 - 168.300
Soybeans
74.96
 
68.991
64.000 - 83.000
Wheat
186.38
 
184.368
175.000 - 195.800


U.S. Wheat Production

 
May #
2012 totals
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
All Wheat
2.057
2.269
2.062
1.832 - 2.190
All Winter
1.486
1.646
1.497
1.359 - 1.604
Hard Red Winter
0.768
1.004
0.776
0.676 - 0.875
Soft Red Winter
0.501
0.420
0.504
0.473 - 0.636
White Winter
0.217
0.222
0.217
0.204 - 0.226


South American Production

 
May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn
76.0
74.000
74.708
73.000 - 77.500
Brazil Soy
83.5
83.500
82.807
81.500 - 83.500
Argentine Corn
26.5
26.500
25.583
24.000 - 26.500
Argentine Soy
51.0
51.500
50.714
48.500 - 51.500

 

Trade will now be eagerly awaiting Monday's crop condition and planting progress report. Several sources in the industry continue to talk about an extensive jump from just 12% of our corn planted last week to 40-45% this week. Remember, it is now estimated that most farmers can plant close to 50-60% of their crop in a week. Data shows the top-5 corn producing states at one point in time jumped 50-65% in one week (Iowa jumped 63% in one week last year). Not saying its a guarantee, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a significant jump to the upside. In 1992 we planted 34 million acres one week and jumped by 43 percentage points. 

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