Grain Market Viewpoint

My hunch, bank some of your hedging profits now!

As for today I suspect last minute end-of-year position squaring and profit taking will be the theme in more light pre-hoiday trade volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see wild moves in both directions before the market finally comes to an end in 2012. Once we return on Wednesday it will be a whole new ballgame as traders prepare for the highly anticipated Jan 11th year-end USDA report. Keep in mind, after we get back, traders will only have 7-trading days until the USDA numbers are released, so I expect some serious volatility ahead of the data. Producers who have been accumulating big profits on their hedges as of late may want to consider banking a portion on a further break to the downside today.

 
I have hunch after we return there may be a little bounce to the upside as money-flow from the New Year makes a slight push. Don't confuse this with a major change in the long-term downward trend however. I am just thinking if you can bank some of your hedging profits now under the current tax rate and reestablish the positions on the next short-term bounce higher you will be money ahead. 
Spec's can continue to look for opportunities to build longer-term bull spread positions in both corn and soy as I suspect the cash market will really tighten up come the late-Feb, Mar, Apr time frame.  
 
Don't forget "First Notice Day" for January futures contracts are today, and the grain and soy markets will not re-open after today's close until 9:30am CST Wednesday morning.
 
To see exactly where we sit with our 2012 and 2013 cash sales,  Click here now, I want to teach you to better understand the markets and how you should respond.  If you are looking to be educated and not just told what to do, get started here free!
 
Hope everyone has a safe and happy New Year!!!
 

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on Sep 14, 2014

Hedging the profits? That is one creative way to make sure that you get the optimum profit right there. - Andrew Stolper

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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