NOPA Crush Tops Expectations

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The soybean market got some friendly news on the demand side from the National Oilseed Processors’ Association (NOPA) monthly crush report on Monday morning.

NOPA reported a member crush of 122.95 million bushels for July, which was above trade estimates that averaged 117.50 million bushels in a range from 115.30 million to 119.00 million bushels and up from a June NOPA crush of 117.70 million bushels.

The NOPA July crush was down less than 1% from July 2010, when NOPA members crushed 124.18 million bushels of soybeans. This suggests USDA may not have to lower its estimate of the 2010-2011 U.S. crush any further. USDA cut its crush estimate by 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion bushels in last Thursday’s monthly supply/demand update.

The crush has been held down in 2010-2011 partly by weak processing margins and partly by higher yields for soymeal and soyoil. NOPA reported an average soymeal yield of 47.76 lbs./bu. for July, up from 47.20 lbs. a year earlier. The July NOPA soyoil yield was 11.71 lbs./bu., up from only 11.20 lbs. in July 2010.

Despite the larger crush, NOPA reported member stocks of soyoil declined to 2.530 billion pounds at the end of July from 2.588 billion at the end of June. Trade estimates of NOPA soyoil stocks averaged 2.550 billion pounds in a range from 2.430 billion to 2.746 billion pounds.

 

Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

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