Grain Market Viewpoint

Numbers on the March 8 USDA WASDE, Crop Production Reports

Table of Contents:

Afternoon Summary

U.S. dollar now trading at the highest level in the past seven months on stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. Could provide some additional commodity headwinds. USDA's WASDE report is the focus of the trade. In a nutshell somewhat disappointing for soybeans; mixed for corn; and disappointing for wheat. Below are a few quick highlights along with specific numbers and estimates. Here are some highlights:
 

Corn

  • U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged
  • Corn exports dropped to 825 million bushels compared to 900 million last month.
  • NASS raised corn imports by 25 million.
  • On the flip side, the USDA raised the demand side of the equation by the same amount (100 million bushels) by pushing livestock feed to 4.55 billion bushels, up from the February forecast of 4.45 billion bushels.

Soybeans

  • U.S. ending stocks unchanged
  • World soybeans ending stocks bumped a hair higher to 60.2 million tons vs. 60.1 million

Wheat

  • U.S. ending stocks bumped higher from 691 to 716.
  • The export forecast was revised down by 25 million bushels to 1.025 billion bushels.  
  • World wheat production bumped higher from 653.6 million up to 655.5 million.
  • World wheat ending stocks pushed higher, as well, from 176.7 mmt to 178.2 mmt.

South America

  • Argentine soy lowered from 53 mmt to 51.5 mmt.
  • Argentine corn also lowered from 27.0 mmt down to 26.5 mmt.
  • Brazil production was left unchanged.
 
Outsides
 
Outside macro traders are digesting this morning’s STRONG U.S. monthly employment numbers.  Remember, U.S. employment data is becoming increasingly more important since U.S. federal monetary policy is now being guided by it. Most traders were looking for a +160,000 job increase and the numbers showed a jump of +236,000 jobs. This is a huge jump over January's gain of +157,000 jobs. The average monthly increase the past six-months has been around +177,000. Another huge positive was the fact the monthly unemployment rate pushed to new four-year lows at 7.7%. The only concern is that we just took one big step closer to the U.S. Fed phasing out quantitative easing.
 

Discuss this Blog Entry 1

on Sep 6, 2014

Those production reports are really good. Something has been done to make the production very good. - Eric Ludy

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