Grain Market Viewpoint

Numbers on the March 8 USDA WASDE, Crop Production Reports

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There is talk in the trade that the USDA may be vastly underestimating the the size of the Chinese hog herd. The USDA office in Beijing is saying the Chinese hog herd could be 8 million head larger than the USDA is currently thinking. Thoughts are by year end they will have over 475 million head. The herd has been increasing much quicker than originally thought because of better disease control practices and a government sow subsidy. The outcome could be fewer pork imports for China but much higher feed grain imports. Just this week Glencore stated that China's big herd had grown to an extent that it might require an additional 160 million tons of corn for feed.   
 
There is talk inside Argentina that soybean exports just two to three weeks away from delivery. Even more talk that Argentine soymeal could quickly find its way into the U.S. by mid- to late April. Prices are still aways off, but it shouldn't take long for them to start penciling. Sounds nuts, but there is even talk we might import some bean oil. Concern for the bulls is that this could ultimately solve the tight U.S. balance sheet.
 
Brazilian port workers unions threaten to strike at 36 Brazilian ports on March 19, even though the unions and government are still in negotiations. Also hearing there is a 35-40-mile line of trucks now waiting to unload soybeans at Mato Grosso. Truck drivers are complaining about waiting two to three days out on the highway before even  entering the terminal.
 
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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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