Table of Contents:
- Numbers on the March 8 USDA WASDE, Crop Production Reports
- <strong>Off the Cuff: What is moving today's market</strong>
There is talk in the trade that the USDA may be vastly underestimating the the size of the Chinese hog herd. The USDA office in Beijing is saying the Chinese hog herd could be 8 million head larger than the USDA is currently thinking. Thoughts are by year end they will have over 475 million head. The herd has been increasing much quicker than originally thought because of better disease control practices and a government sow subsidy. The outcome could be fewer pork imports for China but much higher feed grain imports. Just this week Glencore stated that China's big herd had grown to an extent that it might require an additional 160 million tons of corn for feed.
There is talk inside Argentina that soybean exports just two to three weeks away from delivery. Even more talk that Argentine soymeal could quickly find its way into the U.S. by mid- to late April. Prices are still aways off, but it shouldn't take long for them to start penciling. Sounds nuts, but there is even talk we might import some bean oil. Concern for the bulls is that this could ultimately solve the tight U.S. balance sheet.
Brazilian port workers unions threaten to strike at 36 Brazilian ports on March 19, even though the unions and government are still in negotiations. Also hearing there is a 35-40-mile line of trucks now waiting to unload soybeans at Mato Grosso. Truck drivers are complaining about waiting two to three days out on the highway before even entering the terminal.
For the rest of the story including more insight into what traders believe are influencing market prices currently, sign-up here to receive a RISK-FREE 30-Day trial of my daily Grain and Livestock commentary. So many advisors want to tell you exactly how to market your crop, I want to teach you to better understand the markets and how you should respond. If you are looking to be educated and not just told what to do, simply click here and get started!