Grain Market Viewpoint

Patience at this stage of the game is "best of practice" for most US producers.

Corn bulls have been waiting for a more bullish weather pattern to develop as prices have continued to backpedal. 

There is a slight reprieve this morning on headlines showing massive hail, damaging winds and heavy flooding across a large portion of IA, IL, MO, and NE.  

The problem is the longer-term forecast continues to show good moisture and near average temps across most of the Midwest this summer. 

As we clearly move into a "weather" market, it's tough to get overly excited if the "guest-of-honor" doesn't show up to its own party. In the wake, new-crop prices are now dangerously close to closing below the $4.50 area, something not seen since late-January. Many "technicians" believe a close below this level will prompt further long liquidation and induce a run towards the January lows in the mid-$4.30s. 
 
Even though there looks to be very little in the way of obstacles that will slow the bearish downhill momentum, I am NOT wanting to be a seller on this "break."  After trading to almost $5.15 per bushel (just 17 trading sessions back, on May 6th to be exact) the new-crop DEC14 contract has dropped some $0.60 cents per bushel. 
 

I'm not calling this a bottom or looking for a complete turnaround, but I do think patience at this stage of the game is "best of practice" for most US producers. Focusing your attention on production looks as if will generate the best dividends at this point. Let the market work and wait patiently for a much clearer and better shot at marketing more new-crop production.

 

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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