USDA also released the latest estimates for 2012-2013 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans, and other grains on Sept. 12. USDA is now estimating 2012-2013 U.S. corn ending stocks at 733 million bushels, which is an increase of 83 million bushels from to the Aug. 1 carryover estimate, but would still leave U.S. corn stocks very tight. The expected 2011-2012 final corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.18 billion bushels, which is slightly above the final 2010-2011 corn carryover stocks of 1.12 billion bushels. The level of projected 2011-2012 ending stocks was increased by 160 million bushels from the August estimate, due to decreased feed usage, lower export levels and more new-crop corn available for use prior to Sept. 1, as a result of the early harvest in 2012.
USDA is expecting 2012-2013 soybean carryover stocks to be 115 million bushels, which is the same as the Aug. 1 estimate. The final 2011-2012 soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 215 million bushels in 2010-2011. The projected 2012-2013 soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in nine years, since the 2003-2004 USDA marketing year. The estimated 2012-2013 ending stocks for corn and soybeans represent about 24 days of usage for corn and 16 days of usage for soybeans, based on current corn and soybean use estimates in the U.S. for 2012-2013.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2012-2013 marketing year at $7.20-8.60/bu., or an average of $7.90, which was a decrease of 30¢ from August estimates. The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $6.25 for 2011-2012, compared to $5.18 for 2010-2011, $3.55 in 2009-2010, and $4.06 in 2008-2009.
USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2012-2013 to be $15-17/bu., resulting in an average soybean price of $16, which is the same as the August estimates. The final U.S. average soybean price for 2011-2012 is currently estimated at $12.45, compared to $11.30 for 2010-2011, $9.59 for 2009-2010, and $9.97 for 2008-2009.
Editor’s note: Kent Thiesse is a former University of Minnesota Extension educator and now is Vice President of MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. You can contact him at 507-726-2137 or via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org.