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September 2013 USDA Crop Production summary

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USDA also released the World Supply Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) on Sept. 12, which includes the latest estimates for 2013-2014 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans and other grains. USDA is now estimating 2013-2014 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.85 billion bushels, which is an increase of 18 million bushels from to the Aug. 1 carryover estimate, and would leave U.S. corn stocks on Aug. 31, 2014, at the highest level for that date in recent years. The expected 2012-2013 final corn ending stocks are now estimated at 661 million bushels, which compares to the final 2011-2012 corn carryover stocks of 989 million bushels. The level of projected 2012-2013 ending stocks was decreased by 58 million bushels from the August estimate, due to increased corn usage for livestock feed, industrial use, and ethanol production, as well as higher export levels. The USDA marketing year runs from Sept. 1 to Aug. 31 each year. 

USDA is expecting 2013-2014 soybean carryover stocks to be 150 million bushels, which is down significantly from the Aug. 1 estimate of 220 million bushels, mainly due to lower 2013 soybean production estimates. The final 2012-2013 final soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 169 million bushels in 2011-2012. The latest USDA estimates would result in projected 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks still being at very tight levels heading into the 2014 growing season. The estimated 2013-2014 ending stocks for corn and soybeans represent about 53 days of usage for corn and 17 days of usage for soybeans, based on current corn and soybean use estimates in the U.S. for 2013-2014.

USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2013-2014 marketing year in a range of $4.40-5.20 per bushel, or an average of $4.80 per bushel, which was a decrease of 10¢ per bushel from August estimates. The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $6.90 per bushel for 2012-2013, compared to $6.22 per bushel for 2011-2012, $5.18 per bushel for 2010-2011, and $3.55 per bushel in 2009-2010. 

USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2013-2014 in a range of $11.50-13.50 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $12.50 per bushel, which is an increase of $1.15 per bushel from the August estimates. The final U.S. average soybean price for 2012-2013 is currently estimated at $14.40 per bushel, compared to $12.50 per bushel for 2011-12, $11.30 per bushel for 2010-2011, and $9.59 per bushel for 2009-2010.   

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