Grain Market Viewpoint

Soybeans bullish slant next week

Soybeans are taking a few steps back as Chinese cancelations loom, Argentine production comes online and U.S. producers make more sales.  From what I heard, some 110,000 tons of Argentine meal was booked for delivery into Korea for April delivery at about $45 per ton less than U.S. supplies.  

I am also hearing U.S. farmers (in several areas) are starting to dump more of their remaining soybeans. There were some reports that Cargill and a few other commercials were experiencing long lines to unload beans Thursday. One Cargill location reported a 4-hour wait time on soybeans! There is no doubt the Chinese demand has been insanely strong, but if the dynamics of the meal market, which has clearly been the driving force, begins to change, the front-end run could be close to over.  Lets not forget China still has over 12 million metric tons of U.S. soy that they have committed to but have still not shipped.  

Keep your eye on the NOPA crush numbers set to be released on Monday. A NEW all-time record crush rate  could be in the cards, giving us possibly one last push higher. I am also keeping an eye on the South American weather. There is some talk of extreme heat hitting parts of Argentina this weekend, but it doesn't seem long-lasting and looks to be followed up by cooler temps and good rainfall. Bottom line: The bulls seem to be getting a little more nervous, hence the market has given back about 40¢ from tuesday's high of $13.53^4.   Click here for my daily report......

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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