Soybean traders are digesting the fact the US planting pace is now AHEAD of our traditional average. The USDA released data yesterday showing that 59% of the crop is now planted vs. 41% last year and 56% on average. In addition 25% of the crop is now "emerged" vs. just 12% last year. Still the big question remains in old-crop and in particularly how end-users will source US meal in August.
From what I am hearing most end-users are about 65-75% covered through July but have next to nothing done for August. Obviously everybody is hoping imports will help resolve the situation, but no one is clearly certain about how this game will end.
The problem I see for bullish soybean specs or those few producers still holding on to old-crop bushels is trying to time when to best jump off this speeding train. As we have learned through the years the faster the dang thing is moving the more damage we tend to do to our bodies when we jump.
If you remember the last few times we were moving this fast the party ended in a major hurry. In one flick of the switch the lights came on and the bears raided the scene. As expected the bulls panicked, raced for the door all once and caused the market to immediately tumble.
Like Warren Buffett once said, "It's only when the tide goes out you discover who was swimming naked." My point is it can all end in an unbelievable hurry, therefore the "risk" is being caught exposed to the break.
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