USDA Crop Report Surprise

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Table of Contents:

  • U.S. corn production down 4% from September report
  • Soybean prices up 85¢; corn prices up 50¢
  • Corn carryover less than 1 billion bushels

 

Based on the Oct. 8 Supply and Demand Report, USDA is now estimating 2010-2011 U.S. corn carryover stocks at 900 million bushels, which compares to 1.116 billion bushels in September, and represents a decrease of 31% from the Aug. 1 carryover estimate of 1.312 billion bushels. The projected 2010-2011 corn carryover would be less than 1 billion bushels for the first time in recent history, and would be the lowest in several decades. The expected 2009-2010 final corn carryover stocks are estimated at 1.708 billion bushels. The very low projected corn carryover stocks reflect the anticipated lower 2010 U.S. corn production, as well as increased corn usage for feed, ethanol and exports in the coming year. USDA is expecting 2010-2011 soybean ending stocks to be 265 million bushels, which is down from the September estimate of 350 million bushels, but well above the expected final 2009-2010 final soybean ending stocks of 151 million bushels.

 

USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for 2010-2011 in a range of $4.60-5.40/bu., or an average of $5/bu., which is a significant increase from the September USDA average corn price estimate of $4.40, or the August average corn price projection of $3.80. USDA is projecting the U.S. average soybean price for 2010-2011 in a range of $10-11.50/bu., resulting in an average soybean price of $10.75, which is an increase of 85¢/bu. compared to the $9.90 estimated price in September.

 

 

Editor’s note: Kent Thiesse is a former University of Minnesota Extension educator and now is Vice President of MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. You can contact him at 507-726-2137 or via e-mail at kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com.

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