USDA lowered its U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks forecasts more than expected on Tuesday due to stronger-than-expected old-crop demand, but left its corn carryout forecasts unchanged.
USDA cut its 2011-2012 U.S. soybean carryout forecast by 35 million bushels to175 million bushels compared with trade estimates that averaged 197 million bushels in a range from 170 million to 218 million.
USDA raised projected old-crop exports by another 20 million bushels due to strong demand, primarily from China and raised the projected 2011-2012 U.S. crush by another 15 million bushels due to increased domestic meal use.
The 2012-2013 soybean carryout forecast fell 5 million bushels to 140 million versus pre-report estimates averaging 147 million bushels in a range from 112 million to 211 million. USDA cut next year’s projected exports and U.S. crush by 20 million bushels each.
USDA left its 2011-2012 corn carryout estimate at 851 million bushels compared with trade estimates of the 2011-2012 corn carryout that averaged 828 million in a range from 688 million to 901 million. USDA did cut projected old-crop exports by 50 million bushels due to slower-than-expected sales, but raised projected corn-for-ethanol use by 50 million bushels due to stronger production. USDA made no changes in its 2012-2013 U.S. corn balance sheet.
Old-crop wheat ending stocks were cut by 40 million bushels to 728 million bushels against trade estimates averaging 757 million bushels in a range from 727 million to 775 million bushels. USDA raised expected old-crop exports by 30 million bushels reflecting larger-than-expected shipments late in the 2011-2012 marketing year and raised old-crop food usage by 10 million bushels due to stronger-than-expected wheat milling activity during January-March.
USDA cut its 2012-2013 wheat carryout forecast by 44 million bushels due to the lower old-crop stocks and a modest 9-million-bushel cut in expected production. The agency only raised its projected range for the average on-farm price of wheat by a dime on each end, however, to $5.60-6.80.
Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.