USDA Seen Cutting U.S. Ending Stocks Further

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USDA is expected to make further small cuts to its estimates of U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks in Wednesday morning’s monthly supply/demand update amid continued strong demand.

Continued strong corn-for-ethanol demand could cause USDA to cut its corn carryout estimate further.

Trade estimates of U.S. corn ending stocks average 736 million bushels in a range from 645 million to 795 million bushels compared with USDA’s January estimate of 745 million bushels and last year’s 1.708-billion-bushel carryout, according to a survey taken by Dow Jones Newswires.

Estimates of the U.S. soybean carryout average 135 million bushels in a range from 105 million to 150 million bushels compared with USDA’s January estimate of 140 million bushels and last year’s 151-million-bushel carryout.

Many observers expect USDA to raise its estimate of U.S. soybean exports a bit further. Soybean export sales commitments are running 9.8% ahead of a year earlier with USDA forecasting a 5.9% increase in exports.

Pre-report expectations for U.S. wheat ending stocks average 810 million bushels in a range from 751 million to 889 million bushels compared with USDA’s current estimate of 818 million bushels and last year’s carryout of 976 million bushels.

USDA could raise its estimate of U.S. wheat exports again due to tight supplies of high quality milling wheat outside the U.S. and strong wheat demand from North Africa.

 

Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

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