Grain Market Viewpoint

Where will soybean prices go from here?

Soybeans remain the bright spot, with soymeal continuing to take center stage. The  USDA's weekly export sales report of 850,100 metric tons was way above all trade expectations. Keep in mind, soymeal exports generally reach about 50% of the USDA expectation for the entire marketing year by the first part of October. Basically meaning we might end up seeing the USDA bump their meal export estimate higher.

As for nearby bean prices, I am a little concerned that since we have added 50¢ back to the market in a real hurry, the bulls might need to pause a bit to catch their breath.  If the cash market here at home starts to weaken and the processors drop their bids aggressively, we could give back all of the recent gains in a real hurry. I am also a little concerned about the Chinese margins, which seem to be setting back a touch as of late.

My gut tells me we will continue to stay fairly well supported, but we just might not spend a lot of time at the upper end of the range. If you're a producer I would just be careful trying to capture those last few cents. Always remember, "Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered..." In other words, it might pay to be a little greedy, but if you get too greedy it can quickly get you in big trouble.

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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