Grain Market Viewpoint

Will South America soybean issues push soybean prices higher?

Soybean bulls are happy to see the USDA raise exports by 20 million bushels. However, what we have to keep in mind is the USDA export estimate still only stands at 1.530 billion bushels, while we already have more than 1.600 billion bushels on the books marked as "SOLD".  Point is something desperately has to change. Either China needs to start making more "cancelations" or the USDA is going to be forced to raise their export estimate even higher.  The bears counter this argument by saying any type of adjustment higher to exports will simply be offset by a higher adjustment to imports.  Keep in mind the USDA still has imports right around the same level as last year.  The other argument by the bears is that the pace of both the Chinese and US crush is under pressure. The USDA opted to lower their crush estimate yesterday by 10 million bushels, can't say I blame them, especially when you consider the problems with the PEDV virus and the reduction in the hog numbers.  Bottom-line, not a lot of bullish news to talk about in regard to yesterday's USDA numbers.  Most of the bullish adjustments are being well trumped by opposing bearish rhetoric.  Yes, the global ending stocks number was adjusted lower from 73.0 MMTs last month down to 70.6 MMTs this month, but this is still more than a 90-day supply cushion, therefore the trade doesn't seem extremely nervous about the reduction.  Now if we start South America running into a few more logistical constraints and political problems or we see US weather take a turn for the worse, then maybe the market becomes a bit more nervous about the current global supply situation.  As of right now it seems we will have to continue swimming in this sea of extremely high waves. Unfortunately paddling like hell and not really getting anywhere could be the results.  The soy market seems as if it is ready for a slight breather. The bulls have been running hard and may need to pause for a bit to catch their breath. From a production standpoint I am going to continue to hold my position at 50% sold/hedged vs. new-crop estimated production.             CLICK HERE for my daily report......

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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