Grain Market Viewpoint

Will Soybean Demand Pick Back Up in the Near Future?

Soy traders continue to talk about tight U.S. supplies and the fact Brazilian export shipments are still running below last years pace. March estimates show Brazil only exporting 5.1 million tons, 200,000 short of what they shipped last March. Brazil's soymeal shipments are extremely poor; some are now estimating close to 40% below last years pace for the first few months. The point is: Brazil continues to struggle with soy exports, continually falling below expectations. The bears will argue that the situation in Brazil is starting to improve and that they could actually export a new record amount during the month of April (possible 5.5 to 6.0 million tons).

The bears are also talking about the fact China is importing fewer soybeans – which is actually correct when comparing the data from last year. Last March between Brazil and the U.S. we shipped China around 4.9 million tons of beans; this year it was closer to 4.2 million tons. Bottom line: Chinese demand continues to fall further behind the USDA's 63-mmt estimate. I'm not saying Chinese demand won't soon pick-up, but as of right now it has some serious catching up to do. The market is concerned about more South American supplies coming online, record U.S. soybean acres being planted and the thought that Chinese soybean demand may NOT be increasing as fast as many had anticipated. Keep in mind Chinese pork demand is wavering right now in China with the mystery pig deaths. In return, hog margins remain negative and meal demand is soft. Net-net, it's not a real pretty picture for new-crop soy on the horizon.

I will be making sales and adding hedges to our current positions in the near future, so if you are not already getting my report be sure to click the link below.

CLICK HERE 

Discuss this Blog Entry 6

on Mar 24, 2014

Thanks for a very interesting blog. What else may I get that kind of info written in such a perfect approach? I’ve a undertaking that I am simply now operating on, and I have been at the look out for such info.
http://www.plantbasedmemoryfoammattress1.webself.net/

on Jul 15, 2014

What a beautiful post. The information was really helpful for me and I am very thankful to you for providing me the information. I hope to meet you one day to personally thank you. epaffen.nl

on May 2, 2014

Once I thought about things like: why such information is for free here? Because when you write a book then at least on selling a book you get a percentage. Thank you and good luck on informing people more about it!
web designer washington dc

on Jul 15, 2014

Nasal congestion is known to occur only in people who have low body-oxygen levels – people who have less than 20 seconds for the body-oxygen test. Sinusitis treatment will clear all these right off!

on Jul 21, 2014

Oh, this is a really wonderful post! I really love this and I would give a million dollars for this brilliant post. Thanks, mate! souvenir

on Sep 13, 2014

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed online mobile wallet reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon

Post new comment
or to use your Corn and Soybean Digest ID
What's Grain Market Viewpoint?

Grain Market Viewpoint

Contributors

Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
Blog Archive

Sponsored Introduction Continue on to (or wait seconds) ×