Grain Market Viewpoint

Yields continue to exceed expectations

Corn Survey: We recently conducted an independent survey in regard to what producers are finding once they get into the corn field and start harvesting. These numbers are NOT above or below trend line averages, but simply a survey of producer sentiment. Somewhat of a gauge as to if yields have been improving or falling the past couple of weeks

  • Better-than-Expected: About 75% of the producers we polled are seeing "Better-than-Expected" yields coming out of the field. Example: Farmers who were thinking 140-150 yields a couple of weeks ago before getting into the fields, are now harvesting 160-170 yields.
  • As-Expected: About 20% of the producers polled are seeing yields that are "as expected." Obviously most are not reporting bumper crops, but they are coming about where they had anticipated. Example: Producer with an APH of 180 was projecting his yield at 160 a few weeks back. Now that he is in the field he is confirming his earlier estimate of 160 bushels per acre.
  • Less-than-Expected: About 5% of the producers polled are reporting "Less-than-Expected" yields out of the field. Example: Farmers who were thinking their yield was going to be below their APH level of 180, but still at or around 160, only to see fields yielding 150 bushels per acre once the started harvesting.

*Understand these surveys are solely from those producers who have actually started "harvesting." With the USDA reporting the US corn harvest at only 10% complete there is still a ton of unconfirmed data to digest, but as is shaping up right now there is good reason to believe the yield will soon work its way higher. Keep in mind, as the harvest works its way North, we will be carefully monitoring this data and updating the results. We suspect some of the "Better-than-Expected" will make its way down to the "Less-than-Expected." I will keep you posted

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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