Soybean Crop Seen Under 2.8 Billion Bushel

Trade estimates of the 2001 U.S. soybean crop average 2.795 billion bushels in a range from 2.714 billion to 2.867 billion bushels, according to a survey by Reuters News Service.

The average of trade estimates is 72 million bushels under USDA's Aug. 1 survey estimate. Trade yield estimates average 37.78 bu/acre, down from USDA's Aug. 1 number of 38.7 bu.

The average of trade expectations seems surprisingly low given all the recent talk about the crop recovering and the recent bearish price action in soybean futures.

The average of trade crop estimates is, in fact, right in line with what USDA crop condition numbers would suggest. The BridgeNews Global Weather Service Crop Condition index pegs crop conditions at 95.5% of normal, which suggests a yield of 37.72 bu/acre.

Editors note: Richard Brock, Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at www.brockreport.com.