2012 Corn Yield Prospects

 

With 2011-2012 marketing year-ending stocks of U.S. corn expected to be near pipeline levels, the size of the 2012 crop has substantial price implications. Acreage intentions will be revealed in the USDA’s March 30 Prospective Plantings report, but much of the current discussion centers on prospects for the U.S. average corn yield. Widely differing views of yield prospects for 2012 have emerged. A number of factors may contribute to the diverse views, but four have received a lot of attention. These include:

1. Timing of planting
2. Magnitude and potential change in the trend yield
3. Expected summer weather conditions
4. Location and magnitude of acreage changes

A brief discussion of these factors follows, with more detailed analysis to be provided in upcoming posts at farmdocdaily.

The mild winter weather and early spring fieldwork suggests that the 2012 crop will be planted in a very timely fashion. There is a general perception that early planting results in a higher U.S. average yield potential, all other things equal. Agronomic research in the Corn Belt generally reveals a slight yield penalty for extremely early planting (March), a wide planting window for maximum or near maximum yield potential (early to mid-April through early May) and a yield penalty for late planting that increases with the lateness of planting. While there is a clear yield penalty for late planting, there is not a similar yield premium for early planting. The majority of the crop is planted in the optimum window in most years. To have an effect on U.S. average yield potential, a substantially larger or smaller portion of the crop would have to be planted outside the optimum window. For 2012, a smaller than average percentage of the crop planted late might increase yield potential, but that impact would be quite small.