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U.S. oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 92.7 million tons, down 4.2 million from last month, with lower soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at 3.050 billion bushels, down 155 million as increased harvested area is more than offset by reduced yields. Harvested area, estimated at 75.3 million acres in the June 29 Acreagereport, is 2.3 million above the June projection. The soybean yield is projected at 40.5 bu./acre, down 3.4 bu. from last month. The drop reflects sharply declining crop conditions resulting from limited rainfall since early April coupled with excessive heat across much of the producing area in late June and early July.
Soybean supplies are 160 million bushels below last month’s forecast due to lower beginning stocks and reduced production. Soybean crush is projected at 1.61 billion bushels, down 35 million reflecting the impact of higher soybean meal prices on meal exports and domestic disappearance. Soybean exports for 2012-2013 are reduced 115 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies. Increased exports from South America and Canada partly offset reduced U.S. exports.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million. U.S. soybean crush for 2011-2012 is raised 15 million bushels to 1.675 billion reflecting stronger-than-expected domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports for 2011-2012 are projected at 1.34 billion bushels, up 5 million, reflecting strong late-season sales and increased imports for China. Seed use is raised and residual is reduced based on indications from the June 29 Acreage and Grain Stocksreports, respectively. Soybean ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 170 million bushels, down 5 million.
Prices for soybeans and soybean meal for 2012-2013 are raised this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $13-15/bu., up $1 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $365-395/short ton, up $30 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 52.5-56.5¢/lb.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 465.7 million tons, down 5.1 million from last month. Lower soybean, cottonseed and sunflowerseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for peanuts and rapeseed. Global soybean production is projected at 267.2 million tons, down 3.9 million mostly due to lower production in the United States. Higher soybean production for Canada resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected at 63.1 million tons, down 2.7 million as reduced supplies are only partly offset by lower crush. Lower soybean stocks in the United States and South America account for most of the change.