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Corn production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010-2011 as a 4.0-million-acre increase in intended plantings and a recovery from last year’s weather-reduced yields boost expected output. The 2011-2012 corn yield is projected at 158.7 bu./acre, 3 bu. below the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the slow pace of planting progress through early May. The 2011-2012 yield is expected to be the third-highest on record. Corn supplies for 2011-2012 are projected at 14.3 billion bushels. This is below the 2009-2010 record of 14.8 billion bushels, but up 75 million from 2010-2011, as a 5-million-bushel increase in 2010-2011 imports and a 50-million-bushel reduction in 2010-2011 exports boost current year carryout this month.
Total U.S. corn use for 2011-2012 is projected down 1% from 2010-2011. Corn use for ethanol is projected up 50 million bushels reflecting slow expected growth in gasoline consumption and continued export demand for ethanol in the coming year. Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower than in 2010-2011 reflecting increased availability of feed byproducts from ethanol production and lower expected residual use as compared with the current year. U.S. corn exports for 2011-2012 are projected down 100 million bushels from 2010-2011 with larger foreign corn supplies. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 900 million bushels, up 170 million from the current year projection. Stocks remain historically tight with stocks-to-use projected at 6.7% compared with the current year projection of 5.4%. The season-average farm price is projected at a record $5.50-6.50/bu. compared with the 2010-2011 forecast of $5.10-5.40.
Global coarse grain production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 1,146.8 million tons, up 6% from 2010-2011. A 52.4-million-ton increase in global corn output to 867.7 million tons accounts for 84% of the year-to-year increase in coarse grain production. Foreign corn production is projected up 25.5 million tons with the largest increases expected in Argentina, China, Russia, Mexico and Ukraine. Global 2011-2012 production is raised for barley, oats, and rye, mostly reflecting a recovery in production in Russia. World production for all three crops remains below recent highs as more attractive returns for corn and oilseeds limit area expansion in these traditional coarse grains. Global corn exports are projected higher for 2011-2012 with increases for Argentina, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for the U.S., Canada and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 860.8 million tons, up 22.2 million from 2010-2011, with nearly all of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 129.1 million tons, up 7.0 million from 2010-2011.