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U.S. oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 82 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean and cottonseed production is only partly offset by an increase for peanuts. Soybean supplies for 2012-2013 are reduced due to lower forecast production and beginning stocks. Soybean production is projected at 2.634 billion bushels, down 58 million due to lower yields in the Midwest. Soybean exports are reduced 55 million bushels to 1.055 billion mainly due to reduced supplies. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 1.5 billion, the lowest since 1996-1997. The reduction reflects lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Although soybean ending stocks are projected unchanged at 115 million bushels, they would fall to a nine-year low. Other changes for 2012-2013 include reduced soybean oil production and ending stocks.
Soybean crush for 2011-2012 is increased 15 million bushels to 1.705 billion reflecting higher-than-expected crush reported for July. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.36 billion. Residual use is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting the impact of early harvest of the 2012-2013 crop in the South. Ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Other changes for 2011-2012 include increased soybean oil production, exports, and ending stocks and increased domestic disappearance of soybean meal.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012-2013 is projected unchanged at $15-17/bu. Soybean meal prices are projected at $485-515/short ton, up $25 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54-58¢/lb., up 1¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 453.1 million tons, down 4.2 million from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed and rapeseed are only partly offset by increased peanut and cottonseed production. In addition to the United States, projected soybean production is reduced for Ukraine and Canada. Early harvest results for Ukraine indicate a lower yield in part reflecting unusually hot temperatures during the growing season. Lower soybean production for Canada is based on the most recent crop survey results reported by Statistics Canada.