Big livestock growth
Across the region, there are specific signs of livestock sector growth. Thailand, a long-time net corn exporter, is selling less corn as increasing domestic demand for feed pressures its supplies.
In egg production, Indonesia has moved from 14th in the world to 7th in just one decade, and per-capita broiler consumption climbed 51%, from 4.7 kg (10.3 lbs.) to 7.1 kg (15.6 lbs.) between 2007 and 2011.
In Malaysia, an ambitious program of entry point projects includes feedlot expansion and integration of cattle with oil palm plantations to increase production and improve sustainability. Sector targets call for expanding production to move Malaysia from its current 25% self-sufficiency in beef to 37% self-sufficiency by 2020. That will require expanding breeding stock from 792,000 to more than 3 million head.
Swine numbers in Vietnam increase annually and are forecast to rise 33% (to 32.9 million) in just eight years. Total feed production doubled from 2005 to the present and will double again by 2020, according to Lindblom. Vietnam’s expanding feed industry relies on imports for 65-75% of its ingredients.
Aquaculture expansion is also boosting feed demand. In Indonesia, it grew 29% from 2009 to 2012. From 2001-2002 to 2010-2011 it tripled in Myanmar.
“Everything points to expanded grain use in that region,” says Schaaf, citing heavy investments in livestock production, milling capacity and port facilities to handle commodities.