What is in this article?:
- Corn, Soybean Market Prospects Following USDA Reports
- Acreage intentions
According to Good, the June survey revealed soybean planting and planting intentions of 77.728 million acres, 602,000 above March planting intentions and slightly larger than the previous record acreage of 2010. Compared to March intentions, the June estimates were smaller for Michigan, North Dakota and Ohio and were unchanged or larger for most other major producing states.
The acreage intended for harvest was estimated at 76.918 million, 814,000 more than harvested last year and 302,000 above the 2010 record, Good says. “The difference between planted- and harvested-acreage estimates this year is only 810,000 acres, compared to the average difference of 1.114 million acres in the previous five years. Planted acreage of other oilseeds is estimated at 4.392 million acres, 561,000 below March intentions and 1.497 million less than planted last year. The survey for the current acreage estimates was conducted between May 30 and June 16. Due to the very late-spring planting season in some areas and the unusually large percentage (10%) of the acres to be planted following another crop, more of the survey responses likely reflected planting intentions than is normally the case,” Good says.
The USDA indicated that producers in 14 states will be resurveyed in July to determine if plantings deviated from intentions. The results of that survey will be included in the August Crop Production report.
Good concludes that the June 1 stocks estimates for corn and soybeans confirmed very small inventories and the need to continue to limit consumption until new crop supplies are available.
“As a result, old-crop corn and soybean cash prices are expected to be well supported through the summer months,” Good says. “There is considerably more uncertainty about new-crop production and corn and soybean price prospects. We expect planted and harvested acreage of both crops to be less than revealed in the June survey. However, production will be influenced more by yield prospects than by acreage estimates.
“The period for determining yields is just beginning, with July and August weather critical for both crops. Based on current crop condition ratings and near-term weather forecasts, prospects for yields likely exceed current market expectations, particularly for corn. If weekly condition ratings remain high, new-crop prices are expected to remain under pressure,” Good says.