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Soybean production is forecast at 3.046 billion bushels, down 14 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bu./acre, down 0.2 bu. from last month. Soybean exports are reduced 50 million bushels to 1.325 billion mainly due to a slow export sales pace through October.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 195 million bushels, up 35 million from last month. Soybean oil ending stocks and exports for 2011-2012 are reduced this month due to lower beginning stocks resulting from changes in the 2010-2011 soybean oil balance sheet. Changes for 2010-2011 include reduced soybean oil production and ending stocks. These changes are based on industry indications of soybean crush and soybean oil stocks. Soybean meal production and domestic use for 2010-2011 are also reduced due to lower October-September year crush. Soybean meal changes for 2011-2012 include reduced domestic use and higher exports.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.60-13.60/bu., down 55¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $310-340/short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53-57¢/lb., unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for a quarter of the increase with larger crops projected for Brazil, Paraguay and Mexico. Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million with improved yield prospects related to rapid planting progress and good early season moisture throughout the country. These gains are partly offset by lower production projected for Argentina, which is reduced 1 million tons to 52 million due to reduced area as producers shift to corn.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 113.3 million tons, down 0.8 million. Reduced soybean exports for the U.S. and Argentina are only partly offset by increases for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean imports are reduced for Japan and Russia. Global oilseed crush is reduced 0.2 million tons to 389.1 million with reduced soybean crush in Argentina partly offset by increased sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2011-2012 are raised 0.9 million tons to 73.9 million. Soybeans account for most of the change with increased stocks for the U.S. and China more than offsetting lower stocks in Argentina and Japan.