Corn

U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month, but price outlooks for corn are lowered based on prices reported to date. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20¢ at the midpoint and the projected range is narrowed to $6.80-8/bu. Prices received by farmers through October remained well below cash market bids and this year’s early corn harvest appears to have boosted early season marketing placing further downward pressure on the outlook for the season-average price.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected 7.0 million tons higher mostly reflecting a larger reported corn crop for China. Beginning coarse grain stocks for 2012-2013 are lowered1.0 million tons in part reflecting higher 2011-2012 corn exports for Argentina. Global 2012-2013 corn production is raised 9.4 million tons with China corn output up 8.0 million tons based on recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Strong price incentives to expand corn plantings and favorable summer rainfall, particularly in the northeast provinces, support increases in area and yields raising them to new records. Corn production for Canada is raised 1.5 million tons this month to a new record on higher yields and a record area as reported by Statistics Canada. Russia corn production is raised 1.0 million tons, also a new record. Corn production is increased for North Korea and Chile, up 0.4 million and 0.3 million tons, respectively. Offsetting these increases are reductions for Argentina, Moldova and Ukraine corn, down 0.5 million tons each, with lower expected area for Argentina, lower area and yields for Moldova and lower yields for Ukraine. Belarus corn production is also lowered 0.2 million tons.

Global 2012-2013 coarse grain trade is increased mostly on higher expected corn imports and exports. Corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons for EU-27. Corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Russia. Increases in local marketing year 2011-2012 exports for Argentina, Paraguay and South Africa support higher 2012-2013 consumption this month for Northern Hemisphere countries. Global corn consumption for 2012-2013 is raised 8.7 million tons mostly with increases of 6.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, for China and EU-27 corn feeding. Corn feed and residual use is also raised for Canada and Russia, but lowered for Argentina, Ukraine and Moldova. Corn food, seed and industrial use is raised 2.0 million tons for China, also boosting global corn consumption. World corn ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected 0.4 million tons lower, mostly on reductions in Argentina, Colombia and Ukraine. Small increases in a number of countries, including Canada, are partly offsetting.