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This month’s U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2011-2012 include higher beginning and ending stocks and reduced exports. Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export projection for 2010-2011. Soybean exports for 2010-2011 are reduced 10 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels reflecting the export pace to date for the marketing year and reduced global import demand, led mainly by lower projected imports for China.
Soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are projected at 180 million bushels, up 10 million. U.S. soybean exports for 2011-2012 are reduced 20 million bushels to 1.52 billion, reflecting increased competition from South America resulting from an increase in the recently harvested Brazilian soybean crop. With larger supplies and reduced exports, ending stocks for 2011-2012 are increased 30 million bushels to 190 million. Other changes for 2010-2011 include reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, reduced projected food use of soybean oil and lower soybean oil exports, all resulting in increased ending stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12.
Soybean, meal and oil prices are all raised this month. Led by higher corn prices, the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011-2012 is projected at $13-15/bu., up $1 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices for 2011-2012 are projected at $375-405/short ton, up $25 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 58-62¢/lb., up 2¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 456.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month, mainly due to lower rapeseed production. China soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 14.3 million reflecting lower area as producers shifted to corn. Brazil’s 2010-2011 soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 74.5 million, reflecting yield and production increases reported in the most recent government survey.