What is in this article?:
- How to price new-crop grain
- Seasonal price patterns
Seasonal price patterns
If selling the carry is not an option, your choices quickly narrow. Harvest sales are a good choice for those who priced early, but no fun for those who didn’t. The other choice is to store grain and hope for higher prices in the months ahead. What are the chances that cash prices will be higher next spring and summer?
This chart’s patterns indicate that the chances for higher prices next spring are good. Since 2000, corn prices and soybean prices have risen an average of nearly 20% from harvest to early summer. These are, of course, averages and the averages are skewed by several remarkable years like 2003, 2007, and 2010. But it is a fact that over the last 12 years, the price of corn in has increased from harvest to spring in three out of four years, and five of six years in soybeans.
Seasonal price patterns make the choice to store unpriced grain look easy, but nothing is easy if the market bears are in control.