My point is this. In the last three months my column has focused on the long-term bear move that corn is currently in. The market peaked in September, and the odds of getting back to that level are slim to none and slim left town in October. Our downside objective in corn is still $4 or lower. Making price comparisons to the top is not realistic. This move started at $4, and while viewers do not want believe it, technically that is where this market is headed. All we need to do is get the corn crop planted. Demand is the key issue – and it has already fallen apart.

Many producers are going to have a difficult time making forward selling decisions this year for two primary reasons. Forward selling hasn’t worked at all in the last two years. It has paid to do nothing. Secondly, for many producers if they forward contracted 20% or 30% of the crop due to the drought, it became 40% to 60% of their crop or more. That is tough for anyone to forget.

All I can say is that no two years are the same in marketing. Current corn and bean prices are very profitable and still very high relative to the last 10 or even five-year averages. If this crop gets planted, waiting till July is going to be too late! Aggressive selling did not pay off at all last year – but odds are high it will this year.