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U.S. oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9% from 2012-2013. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Sunflowerseed, peanut and cottonseed production are each projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on slightly higher harvested area and higher yields. Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bu./acre, up 4.9 bu. from 2012. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10% from 2012/13. Additional soybean meal exports for 2012-2013 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged. Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012-2013 are also unchanged from last month.
The 2013-2014 U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million from 2012-2013 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption and exports. Despite increased competition from South America, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast higher on sharply lower prices. Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels, up 100 million from 2012-2013 on increased supplies and competitive prices.
Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012-2013. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013-2014 is forecast at $9.50-11.50/bu. compared with $14.30 in 2012-2013. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $280-320/short ton and 47-51¢/lb., respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at a record 491.3 million tons, up 4.7% from 2012-2013 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6%. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2012-2013 on record planted area and higher yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2012-2013 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. If realized, harvested area at 6.6 million hectares would be down 28% in the past four years. Oilseed supplies are up 5.1% from 2012-2013. With crush projected to increase 3.4%, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, up 12.3 million.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.7% in 2013-2014. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.3% in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons, up 11.3% from 2012-2013. China soybean imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012-2013 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year.