Rabobank has released a mid-year agribusiness review, highlighting the economy, weather and growing conditions, margins and prices, grain stocks, global imports and exports and more. Some highlights include:
- The likelihood of experiencing and El Nino cycle increases every day, which would prove very bearish to grain prices.
- Cash markets associated with corn exports continue to be the top bidder for old-crop corn. The U.S. has an unusual 430 million bushels of outstanding corn sales in week 39 (65% higher than the three-year average). Cash prices are expected to remain better in the exports draw areas around the Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio rivers.
- The tightness in old-crop soybeans continues to be the story for commodity markets. U.S. soybean exports are at record-high levels and year-to-date NOPA crush is running at the third highest pace on record.
- Ammonia, DAP and potash prices continue to be below the three-year average in 2014.
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