NASS now forecasts the U.S. average soybean yield at 43 bushels per acre, compared to the September forecast of 41.2 bushels. The estimate of planted acreage was reduced by 685,000 acres and the estimate of harvested acreage was reduced by 690,000 acres. The size of the 2013 harvest is now forecast at 3.258 billion bushels, 109 million larger than the September forecast. The forecast of soybean production in the rest of the world was reduced by 40 million bushels, although the forecast for South American production was unchanged.

The projection of 2013-2014 marketing year exports were increased by 80 million bushels, to a total of 1.45 billion bushels, reflecting the large export sales already made and the rapid pace of export shipments. In addition, the projection of the marketing year crush was increased by 30 million bushels, reflecting expectations of larger exports. In contrast to the large projection for feed and residual use of corn, the projection of domestic meal consumption was unchanged from September and is only 850,000 tons (3%) larger than consumption of last year.

Year-ending stocks of soybeans are projected at 170 million bushels, only 20 million bushels larger than the September projection and only 29 million larger than stocks at the beginning of the year. The marketing year average price is projected in a range of $11.15 to $13.15, $0.35 lower than the September projection.