U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn productionfor 2011-2012 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield is forecast at 153 bu./acre, down 5.7 bu. from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below-average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.
Total projected corn use for 2011-2012 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011-2012 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.4%, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4%. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20-7.20/bu., up 70¢ on each end of the range.
Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009-2010 is adjusted based on these revisions.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected lower with a 3.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million-ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the U.S. with foreign corn, barley and oat production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine and EU-27, but lowered for Egypt
Global coarse grain exports for 2011-2012 are lowered slightly as reduced U.S. corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in U.S. exports.
Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the U.S. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the U.S. reduction.