U.S. oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month. Soybean, canola and sunflowerseed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies for 2011-2012 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks.
Soybean production for 2011-2012 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bu./acre is 2 bu. below last month’s trend yield projection and 2.1 bu. below last year’s yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.
U.S. changes for 2010-2011 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks. Crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.
Soybean and product prices for 2011-2012 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50-14.50/bu., up 50¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355-385/short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5-58.5¢/lb., up 0.5¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last month mostly due to a reduction in the U.S. soybean crop. Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed and peanut production. Lower soybean production is projected for the U.S., China and Ukraine. China’s production is projected at 14 million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at 73.5 million tons, up 1 million due to higher expected yield. Production for Brazil’s 2010-2011 crop is also raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields.