U.S. feed-grain ending stocks for 2009-2010 are projected lower this month with higher expected corn use and sorghum exports. Corn used for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels higher reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Agency. November’s record ethanol production was up 3% from the previous record in October as higher prices for ethanol and distillers’ grains boosted ethanol producer returns. November-December corn use for ethanol was up 16% from the same period in 2008-2009. Although returns have declined since November, recently lower corn prices continue to support profitability for ethanol producers. A 5-million-bushel reduction in expected corn use for sweeteners partly offsets the increase for ethanol.
Corn exports for 2009-2010 are projected 50 million bushels lower on increased competition from Argentina. Ending stocks are projected 45 million bushels lower. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 5¢ on both ends of the range to $3.45-3.95/bu.
Global coarse grain production for 2009-2010 is projected 1.6 million tons higher this month with higher Argentina corn production only partly offset by lower EU-27 corn production and lower Ukraine barley and oats production. Argentina corn production is raised 2.2 million tons with higher expected yields and harvested area as growing conditions continue to improve with additional rainfall in the main corn areas. Late planting and short-term heat stress in the western growing areas temper prospects as a substantial portion of the growing season is still ahead. EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.4 million tons on downward revisions to area for Italy. Ukraine barley and oats production are each lowered 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest revisions to state statistical committee estimates. A number of small, offsetting revisions are made for Russia coarse grains production.
OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009-2010 are reduced to 210 million bushels, down 35 million from last month due to increased exports and crush. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.4 billion as export shipments continue to exceed earlier projections. Although a record South American harvest is expected to reach the market in coming weeks, tight old-crop South American supplies resulting from last year’s historic drought in Argentina continue to support U.S. exports.
Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.720 billion reflecting a strong soybean meal exports and a lower soybean meal extraction rate. Soybean oil stocks are projected higher this month as the increased crush more than offsets a small reduction in the soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite reduced production due to the loss of the $1/gal. blending credit at the end of December. The recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of final rules for the 2009 and 2010 biodiesel mandates is expected to result in offsetting production gains through the end of the 2009-2010 marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008-2009 is projected at $8.70-10.20/bu., down 20¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270-320/short ton, up $5 on both ends. The soybean oil price is projected at 33.5-36.5¢/lb., down 2.5¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2009-2010 is projected at 433.7 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month. Global soybean production is raised 1.6 million tons to 255 million tons. Improved production prospects for South America account for most of the change. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 66 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields. Soybean production is also raised for Paraguay and Uruguay.
Global oilseed trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 96.3 million tons, mainly due to increased soybean imports for China and Egypt. Higher global oilseed crush mainly reflects increased rapeseed crush in Canada, China and EU-27. Global oilseed stocks are mostly unchanged at 71.1 million tons.
For the complete Feb. 9 WASDE Report, see: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194